Orders from the US buoy Portuguese exports to the US

In a rush to beat the introduction of “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by the White House, US orders from Portugal offset an overall drop in exports in the first quarter of this year.

Representing more than a third of the total Portuguese sales of goods to the US, without these orders, exports would have fallen more sharply.

This is the conclusion from Portugal’s National Statistics Institute (INE) which on Monday calculated that exports to the US fell 1.8% in 1Q like-for-like.

However, the INE stresses that “excluding non-ownership transactions”, this fall would have been significantly sharper at 13.6%.

Most transactions of goods in international trade involve a transfer of ownership. However, in recent years, transactions without transfer of ownership, which are intended for or arise from commissioned work, have increased significantly in the US, especially in the export flow, according to the INE.

Between 2018 and 2024, the weight of orders in Portugal’s sales to the US increased by 17.7 percentage points, to 18.6%.

However, it shot up in the first quarter of this year, when the sale of orders to the US reached 32.2%, according to data from the statistical office.

The orders were mostly for industrial supply, particularly chemicals, “with little or no expression in other categories.”

Moreover, the difference between exports with and without ownership transfer (orders in the latter case), is explained by industrial goods. In the first quarter the sale of these products increased 9%, but if orders are excluded the situation reverses with exports falling to 23.5%.

This increase can be explained by increased ordering at the then current import duty prices (pre-April 2) before the 25% tariffs were to come into effect. Later, negotiations between the EU and US brought a pause whereby tariffs would be fixed at 10% until July pending the outcome of negotiations.