Mário Centeno to leave Bank of Portugal next month – but where will he go next?

The Bank of Portugal has announced that its governor Mário Centeno will be replaced “soon” with a new governor appointed without a public competition.

If Mário Centeno doesn’t go for a second term, he will complete his current term at the helm of the bank on July 20.

However, the former minister of Finances could represent Portugal at the European Central Bank (ECB), and according to sources consulted by the business daily Negócios, would provide the current government led by Luís Montenegro with an excuse “not to support” a second term for Mário Centeno at Portugal’s central bank.

At the ECB, the first position to become available will be that of the current vice-president, the Spaniard Luis de Guindos, who will step down on May 31 of next year.

The likelihood of Portugal asserting its influence in the race for the ECB vice-presidency is low, not least because it already had achieved that with former BoP governor Vítor Constâncio, and normally the ECB likes to have a balance of appointments from different Member States when it comes to plum appointments, and although not impossible, it is considered unlikely that Mário Centeno will be tipped for the ECB vice-presidency.

The former governor of the Bank of Ireland, Philip Lane is likely to leave the ECB in early 2027, and could be replaced by Mário Centeno. Lane is currently a member of the ECB’s executive board, a position he has held since 2019.

Mário Centeno had applied for the leadership of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but was not successful, Kristalina Georgieva, the current IMF head, being appointed instead in 2019.

There is, however, a vacancy coming up in Washington after the departure of another Portuguese ex-Finances minister, Vítor Gaspar as the director of the IMF’s Department of Public Finances.

Other vacancies at different institutions are on the horizon. The World Bank is Currently headed by Ajay Banga until 2028, while Mathias Cormann will remain at the OECD until mid-2026, a few months before Christine Lagarde’s term at the European Central Bank (ECB) ends.

There are positions, such as that of president of the European Central Bank, that “would even benefit from Mário Centeno’s reappointment at the Bank of Portugal,” and the ECB where Mário Centeno is well regarded, may have room for Mário Centeno on its executive team, but not yet.

Until then, Centeno wants to “do what I like best, which is to talk,” referring to a possible lucrative career giving after dinner speeches.