Portugal’s exports fell 1.4% in 1Q as world markets lose confidence
Exports of goods fell 1.4% and imports increased 4.7% to April in like-for-like terms from January to April this year increasing Portugal’s trade deficit by €2.1Bn to €11.4Bn according to Portugal’s National Statistics Institute.
According to international trade statistics from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), excluding TTE transactions, i.e., those related to or following work on order (without transfer of ownership), exports increased by 4.6%, while imports grew by 7.4%.
Considering only the month of April, exports and imports of goods registered nominal year-on-year increases of 15.5% and 8.9%, respectively (11.0% and 12.3%, respectively, in March 2026).
When TTE transactions are excluded, the increases were more significant in both flows: 16.9% in exports and 15.3% in imports (14.9% and 12.7%, respectively, in March 2026).
Portugal’s goods exports dropped 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, primarily driven by weaker European consumer demand, severe winter storms that damaged local infrastructure and agriculture, and mounting pressure from Asian competitors.
It forms part of a general pattern within the EU as extra-bloc exports contracted by nearly 9% compared to the same period in 2025, primarily driven by a 30% drop in shipments to the United States and notable declines to China and Turkey.
This slump reflects preemptive supply chain adjustments ahead of a pending EU-US trade deal, ongoing tariff tensions, and a drop in manufacturing demand.
There also alarming signals coming out from the Bank of America among other institutions that seven out of 10 red flag warnings (10 meaning an imminent risk of a serious market collapse and global recession) are evident.
These include a lack of market confidence, a perception that companies in technology areas such as AI are overvalued, increasing inflation, falling US dollar value, and investor flight from AI and microchip stocks.
Sources: INE/Eurostat/Bank of America.
