Bank of Portugal forecasts 1.8% GDP growth for 2026
Three months after the last economic forecasts, and after an equal period of the Persian Gulf blockade, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) continues to expect a GDP increase of 1.8% this year, leaving its economic growth forecasts for this year and the coming years unchanged on Monday.
The institution’s updated macroeconomic scenario is limited to revising annual inflation upwards, although it is now expected to remain at no more than 3.1% in 2026.
The forecasts in the new BdP Economic Bulletin are released just hours after Iran and the United States announced an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, which will allow the resumption of energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz and is expected to be signed this Friday.
This development in the prospects for overcoming the crisis that has been ongoing since the end of February, however, is not yet a factor in the projections, which instead assume contained and temporary effects of the current crisis.
“To date, the energy shock caused by the war in Iran has been more contained than in 2022 and is assumed to be temporary. The Portuguese economy is better positioned to face these challenges: it has reduced its energy dependence on foreign sources, strengthened the weight of renewables, and has lower debt levels,” argues the BdP team in the press release presenting the new bulletin.
However, these forecasts assume an upward revision of the average oil price to €82.9 per barrel (in 2026), and also take into account the recent downward revision of the growth forecast for the Eurozone by the European Central Bank, pointing to a 0.8% increase in GDP in the single currency area.
Source: Negócios; Credits: TIAGO PETINGA/LUSA
Copyright: © 2026 LUSA – Agência de Notícias de Portugal, S.A.
