ISEG growth forecast to 2.9%

Portugal’s economy should grow more in 2023 than initially expected according to the latest forecast; this time from the Portuguese school of economics and business ISEG.

Taking into consideration growth posted in the 1st quarter and projected growth for the next quarters, the Portuguese economy could grow between 2.1% and 2.9% with an average of 2.5% according to a snapshot of the economy from the business school released in May.
It is quite a significant upwards review taking into account that its previous forecast was estimated at 1.6%.
In fact, Portugal’s GDP did indeed grow1.6% in Q1 according to the OECD, enjoying the greatest growth of the OECD countries, ahead of Canada (0.6%), Italy (0.5%) and Japan (0.4%).
It was also better than the US (0.6%) and Germany (-0.5%) and France (0.2%)
ISEG states “given the level of GDP registered in the first quarter and the absence of quarter-on-quarter growth at the end of 2022, but no falls in growth either, it should be sufficient to ensure an annual growth of 2.1% in 2023”.
However, in its latest Economic Survey, which factors in some growth in the Euro Zone, together with a slightly more optimistic economic climate in line with economic forecasts, it suggests it is likely that the Portuguese economy will grow more than the 2.1% initially expected.
ISEG goes on to state that despite net external demand having had a vital role in the first quarter’s growth “it is expected that growth in internal demand will make a more significant contribution by the end of the year, particularly in terms of investment, while it is likely that the contribution from external demand will slow as overseas tourism demand gets back to normal.