Forum for Competitiveness forecasts growth of 1.8-2.1%
The Competitiveness Forum has forecast a slowdown in Portugal’s economic growth from 2.3% in 2023 to between 1.8% and 2.1% in 2024, stabilising in that range in 2025, according to its Business Prospects bulletin released on Thursday.
The independent economic performance entity points out that most of the indicators suggest “there was a slowdown in the economy in the second quarter, but a not very significant one, which points to an upward review of the outlook for the year as a whole”.
The forecast from the Forum compares with government estimates of a rate above 2%, while those from the Bank of Portugal and the International Monetary Fund are 2%. The European Commission has forecast 1.7% and Portugal’s Public Finance Council and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have both set more conservative growth estimates of 1.6%.
The Forum also estimates a slowdown in inflation, from 4.3% in 2023 to between 2.2% and 2.5% in 2024 and between 1.9% and 2.2% in 2025, noting that next year “the disinflation process should continue, and the ECB’s 2% benchmark is increasingly likely to be met, even if there are temporary fluctuations and even some possible minor delays”.