Government revises GDP upwards to 2% in 2025

The Government has forecast real growth of 2% between 2024 and 2025, as well as an increase of 4% to 4.5% in tax revenue and 8% in primary expenditure this year.

According to SIC Notícias, the government anticipates a surplus in line with that forecasted in the Stability Program (SP), that is 0.3%, but with a structural balance close to 0%.

The figures from the Ministry of Finance (Minister of Finance, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento pictured) were presented to political parties on Tuesday as part of the macroeconomic scenario designed by the Government and which should be included in the State Budget proposal for next year (OE2025).

The macroeconomic forecast was delivered a month early – usually the document is released closer to the delivery day of the outline State budget to the Portuguese parliament.
Tax revenues are forecast to be slightly below the 4.8% calculated by the previous government.

In the macroeconomic scenario foreseen in the Stability Programme presented by the government in April, the projection for growth this year was 1.5% and 1.9% for next year. The budget balance was expected to stay at 0.3% this year and next, remaining positive over the projection horizon until the end of the legislature.

The reduction of public debt has been one of several government priorities, stemming from previous governments, and Luís Montenegro has already assured that this priority will be maintained.

Nevertheless, given EU monetary policy and the debt stock still weighing on the national economy, interest expenses are expected to grow by 500 million euros this year compared to the previous year, reducing to 300 million euros in 2025.