Just what is the reality of Portugal’s realty premium market?

That Portugal’s premium residential real estate market had a bumper year in 2025 is well known.

But now it’s confirmed and backed up by a fistful of statistics thanks to an in-depth study done by Porta da Frente Christie’s and NOVA SBE which has revealed just how important the sector is for Portugal’s economy in terms of GDP and employment.

But the market which covers premium and luxury and is aimed at affluent buyers and HNWIs and UHNW buyers could have far exceeded the €41.2Bn worth of transactions had there been the supply, and there would have been more supply had politics and public policies and a whole host of other problems not got in the way over the years says the authors of the study Realty Premium Market developed by Porta da Frente Christie’s International Real Estate and NOVA School of Business & Economics (SBE) under the coordination of professor and researcher Pedro Brinca

Because you see, in Portugal there are a myriad of rules, regulations, taxes, and inadequate and complex land laws not to mention urban planning issues that make it as difficult as is possible for overseas investors to relocate to Portugal and developers to have to incentives to develop quality residential projects at the top end of the market, let alone the bottom and affordable end.

A tale of two markets

Based on recent analyses and market data from 2025 and 2026, Portugal’s high-end property market faces significant structural, economic, and social tensions that are often characterised as an ideological clash between international investment-led development and local housing affordability.

The market is witnessing a “tale of two markets,” where high-end residential real estate continues to surge—with prices rising 23% between 2021 and early 2025—while affordable housing disappears, threatening the quality of life for the local middle class.

That’s what the ideologues would have you believe. But the truth is that affluent and HNWIs buy only a tiny fraction of Portugal’s housing stock (when there is any), and they tend to have very specific requirements that the likes of those on modest salaries, which is many of us, wouldn’t be looking at in any case.

And if you want to know why you can’t get a project off the ground in under three years from start to finish just ask some of the experts, including an academic, who I heard on Thursday morning at the well-appointed offices of Porta da Frente Christie’s in Lisbon’s downtown upmarket shopping and residential artery Avenida da Liberdade.

They have just published the second edition of Realty Premium Market, a study developed by Porta da Frente Christie’s International Real Estate and NOVA School of Business & Economics (SBE) under the coordination of professor and researcher Pedro Brinca who was present to walk us through the findings.

The study shows that the sector saw 170,000 properties sold, the highest number since 2021.

Based on exclusive market data, the new edition of the study indicates that the average price per square meter (m²) in the high-end market reached €7,945/m² in the fourth quarter of 2025, an 8.5% increase compared to the previous year and a cumulative appreciation of 35.8% since 2021.

Among its different sub-segments, Affluent, which focuses on properties whose price per m² is between the 10% and 5% most expensive in the market, stood out for its positive performance, registering an appreciation of 10.4% compared to 2024.

This sub-segment reflects a broader and predominantly national demand base, as well as greater liquidity when compared to the Premium (properties between the 5% and 2% most expensive in the market) and Luxury (top 2% of the most expensive properties in the market) sub-segments, positioning itself as the main gateway to the market.

This price increase results from a combination of several structural factors. On the one hand, demand has increased by about 12% compared to 2024, driven by lower interest rates, which brought some buyers back to the market, and by the “home swap” effect, with owners capitalising on the appreciation of their assets to invest in more valued segments, and by increased demand from international buyers.

On the other hand, supply remains structurally limited. According to the study, Portugal continues to build below the European average, with a construction rate of 4.2 dwellings per 1,000 housing units, compared to 7.1 on average in Europe, and around 25,000 dwellings completed in 2024 — less than half of what is needed. This shortage, aggravated by rising construction costs, sustains pressure on prices, drives up the value of existing stock and pushes new supply to higher values.

This context has a direct impact on the national economy. After a contraction recorded in 2023 and 2024, 2025 was a year of recovery for high-end real estate, which recorded a production of €5,992 million (+€469 million compared to 2024) and a gross value added (GVA) of €2,988 million (+247 million euros year-on-year).

At the same time, employment associated with the sector rose to 77,108 jobs (+5,669 jobs) and remuneration reached €1,236 million (+€91 million), compared to 2024. This data shows a sector that actively contributes to wealth and job creation, consolidating its role as one of the main drivers of the Portuguese economy.

Similar to what was observed in the last edition of the study, the districts of Lisbon, Porto and Faro continue to concentrate most of the high-end properties, especially the parishes of Cascais and Estoril, Quarteira and the Union of Parishes of Cedofeita, Santo Ildefonso, Sé, Miragaia, São Nicolau and Vitória.

However, the market has been expanding to emerging areas, such as Campolide, Carcavelos and Parede, Marvila and Lumiar, in Lisbon, and Paranhos, in Porto. This evolution has been driven by factors such as more competitive entry prices, new urban development projects, and improvements in accessibility and transport infrastructure.

A new dynamic

The data from this edition of the Realty Premium Market also reveals a new dynamic regarding the type of properties available on the market.

In 2025, houses represented approximately 57% of the total high-end supply. Apartments, on the other hand, showed more moderate growth, although they continued to have a significant weight, with a slight increase in the supply of the T3 (three-bedroom) typology. This evolution reflects a growing preference for larger and more exclusive assets, aligned with the demands of a more sophisticated buyer.

According to Pedro Brinca, (the researcher at NOVA SBE who coordinated of the study), “the high-end real estate market in Portugal has maintained a very consistent growth dynamic.

In 2025, there was not only an increase in transactions, but also an appreciation in prices, in a context where demand far exceeds supply. This imbalance remains the main factor of pressure on the sector.”

João Cília, CEO of Porta da Frente Christie’s International Real Estate, said that that in 2026, the high-end real estate market in Portugal was likely to maintain a consistent growth momentum, supported by demand that continues to far exceed supply.

This structural imbalance, he said, remained the main factor putting pressure on the sector and would continue to support price increases, despite a more stable macroeconomic context.

It’s actually amazing that the authors were even able to compile this report since it’s very difficult to get data on the high-end residential market in Portugal.

There are several sources, but none of them are centralised in this segment despite the fact that it has become increasingly more relevant over the past 10 years or so.

But one thing is clear, the market trends that govern this market are often very different from the rest of the market in Portugal.

To give an example, when interest rates shot up at the start of the war with Ukraine, the general mass market fell, but the luxury market didn’t fall nearly as much.

After the initial shock, and when interest rates began to fall, the recovery was rapid in the mass market, so trends affect markets in different ways.

Another factor was advertising. In 2025 there were less adverts for premium and luxury developments, yet the number of people looking to buy who clicked on the adverts that had appeared rose bye 12% per advert.

Overall. in the last quarter of 2025 there were around 21,000 properties available, the vast majority detached houses (13.700 compared to 7,300 appartments) and an accumulated increase in prices since 2021 to 4Q 2025 of 36%.

And the accumulated supply of high-end properties since 2021 fell from 28,000 in 2021 to 21,000.

Some of this fall was down to stock that was demolished or very dilapidated, but the main institutions in the sector estimate that the market needs around 70,000 properties per year to keep the stock at the same level.

Source: Pedro Brinca (Realty Premium Market study); Credits: Photos Supplied.