TAP more exposed to jet fuel costs than other European airlines
TAP is more exposed to rising fuel prices than several European counterparts, with an average coverage of 40% for 2026, lower than that observed in groups such as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and IAG, according to an analysis sent to the news agency Lusa.
According to data from financial analyst Nuno Esteves, Air France-KLM has fuel coverage close to 85% for the next 12 months, Ryanair 84%, Lufthansa around 76%, easyJet an annual average between 65% and 70%, and IAG 62%, which leaves the Portuguese carrier more exposed to the volatility of jet fuel prices.
This vulnerability is highlighted in a context of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has once again put pressure on energy markets, increased uncertainty in the sector, and fuelled fears in Europe, not only about the impact on prices, but also about the risk of aviation fuel shortages should disruptions in supply routes persist.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz during the current ceasefire, but the evolution of the conflict and maritime traffic remains dependent on the geopolitical situation in the coming weeks.
According to Nuno Esteves, the situation in the Middle East has direct and indirect impacts on the main performance drivers of airlines, starting with the price of aviation fuel.
In the case of TAP, jet fuel was the main item of operating costs in 2025, representing 24% of operating costs, totaling €990 million, €56 million less than in 2024. “A trend that will be significantly reversed in 2026,” it points out.
The same analysis indicates that the average price of aviation fuel rose from $702.35 per tonne in 2025 to $1,371.77 by April 6, 2026, reflecting an average increase of 30% compared to the same period of the previous year.
“This vulnerability is aggravated by lower risk hedging compared to European competitors, making TAP more exposed to the volatility of energy markets,” he states.
According to the expert, “each 10% increase in the price of jet fuel in 2026 will translate into an increase of approximately €59.4 million on TAP’s annual costs,” with a negative impact of 1.2 percentage points on the operating margin.
According to the same analysis by the sector-specialised analyst, the company’s operating result amounted to €334 million in 2024 and €243 million in 2025, figures that “could be rapidly eroded by a sharp rise in the price of jet fuel, with potential repercussions in fare increases and a contraction in demand, in a context where TAP has a high exposure to the leisure segment, which is more price-sensitive.”
Source: Lusa; Credits: TAP
