IPTD Tourism Intelligence forecasts 31-34 million tourists for Portugal this year

In the year it marks 25 years of activity, IPDT – Tourism Intelligence has presented its 2026 Trends Yearbook, which includes a Tourism Sector Barometer. Projections point to the consolidation of record levels achieved in the last two years, but a more moderate and sustained growth cycle.

For 2026, the IPTD estimates that Portugal could receive between 31.1 and 34 million guests (31.6 million in 2024 and 32.5 million in 2025) and register between 80.1 and 83 million overnight stays (80.4 million in 2024 and 82.1 million in 2025).

Total revenues are expected to be between €6.6Bn and €7Bn, keeping the sector at historically high levels (€6.7Bn in 2024 and €7.2Bn in 2025).

“After an exceptional 2024 and a record-breaking 2025, 2026 should mark a phase of consolidation, with more moderate growth and profits reflecting the continued appreciation of the sector,” says Jorge Costa, president of IPDT – Tourism Intelligence. “With revenues close to €30 billion** and a tourism balance of payments above €20 billion, almost triple that of 2014, tourism is establishing itself as a strategic pillar, representing more than 10% of GDP, compared to 5.9% just over a decade ago.”

Domestic tourism offers security and political-economic confidence

According to the Barometer, security, political stability and economic confidence, cited by 75% of experts, are the main factors in the destination’s competitiveness. Portugal’s positive image and attractiveness come next, mentioned by 68%, followed by the quality, diversity and competitiveness of the tourism offer, mentioned by 66%. Connectivity and operational efficiency, indicated by 39%, also reinforce the importance of accessibility in consolidating growth.

Accessibility, mobility, and human resources are the biggest challenges

Despite the positive outlook, significant challenges remain for 2026. Accessibility and mobility are cited by 48% of respondents as the main constraint, particularly regarding airport capacity. The shortage of qualified human resources is mentioned by 45%, while 43% highlight the risks associated with international economic and financial instability. Tourist pressure in certain destinations is mentioned by 32%, underlining the need for better flow management.
Upgrading and diversifying the offer are objectives for 2026

Given this context, the strategic priorities for 2026 include upgrading and diversifying the offer (41%), improving infrastructure and accessibility (27%), and enhancing human resources (25%), ensuring more balanced and sustainable growth.

10 travel trends

The Yearbook also identifies 10 travel trends for 2026: self-care and regeneration; destinations chosen according to mood; literary tourism and digital detox; the search for silence and refuge; or the return to destinations for deeper experiences. Also emerging are: the appreciation of daily life and local authenticity; sport as cultural motivation; travel as a test of relationships; travel as a ritual of personal transition; and Artificial Intelligence as a discreet support for personalizing the experience.

“What if Tourism Ended?”

This year, IPDT – Tourism Intelligence challenges the sector by projecting a world without tourism, highlighting impacts such as economic collapse in various sectors, increased unemployment and impoverishment, loss of urban vitality, weakened cultural dialogue, reduced environmental funding, and decreased empathy between societies.

As a response, it proposes “Coexistence Tourism,” focused on the balance between visitors, communities, and territory, promoting more conscious stays, better flow management, and redistribution of benefits.

For IPDT – Tourism Intelligence, tourism is a vital system that links economy, culture, environment, and human relations, requiring responsible and purposeful planning and management. Currently, the sector employs 339,000 people (6.5% of employment), comprises 51,200 companies (11% of the total), registering 110,000 new graduates between 2020 and 2024, and has 57% women working in tourism.

Source: IPTD; Credits: Chris Graeme