No-deal Brexit will hit Portuguese economy

 In Brexit, News

A no-deal Brexit is expected to impact on Portugal’s economic growth by anything between 0.6% and 1.6% reports the weekly Algarve Resident newspaper.
Different forecasts are given by Jornal Económico (0.6% by 2021), Dinheiro Vivo (1.6% over the next few years) and ECO online (1% by 2021).

The only aspect they are all agreed upon is that a no-deal won’t help Portugal financially. All three reports are interpretations of forecasts given by the Bank of Portugal.
With a no-deal scenario looking increasingly likely, newspapers in Portugal are running with the ‘doom and gloom’ of what it could all mean.
The Bank of Portugal states that Britain would be Portugal’s most important partner outside the Eurozone after a withdrawal — it is the fourth most important export destination in the world for Portugal ( around €4Bn) after Spain, France and Germany and once the UK leaves the EU it will become the biggest non-EU market ahead of even the United States (€3.2Bn) according to the OEC.
“Any disordered withdrawal from the European Union would have a significant impact on external demand with a reduction of British imports”.
Furthermore, the BdP states that the reduction of exports “implies a decrease in demand for manufactured goods and other produce” which would lead to a “reduction in investment and a slight decrease in employment and consequently in private consumption.”
Only Dinheiro Vivo explains that this is the “worst of all possible scenarios” — as elsewhere the government has been at pains to stress that whatever happens, there is no chance of any further negotiations with the EU over Britain’s withdrawal.
Speaking in Malta as he took part in the 6th South EU Summit, Prime Minister António Costa said there is absolute consensus among member states over the need for an orderly UK exit. But if it doesn’t transpire, the, “UK has got to understand that it cannot transfer its internal political problems to Europe.”
Brussels, too, has reiterated that, whatever happens, the UK must pay the €39Bn divorce bill — without which no future negotiations on trade with the EU could move forward.