Biden steps down. Now what?

Reflections on the race for the White House by Patrick Siegler-Lathrop

Before we try to understand the consequences of Biden’s decision to no longer seek reelection, let us rejoice! Biden’s decision is very good news, for the Democratic Party and in my view for America, and for the world.

I was sure that if Biden continued to be the Democratic candidate, Trump was going to win the election on November 5, whereas now, there is at least a reasonable chance that the Democratic candidate can beat Trump.

What happens next? The Democratic Party will select another candidate to run for President and for Vice-President, with the formal choice to be made during the Democratic Party Convention, August 19-22, 2024 in Chicago, when the 3979 delegates will each have a vote, with a majority of 1990 required to declare a winner.

Who will be the Democratic Party candidate to head the ticket in November? Vice-President Kamala Harris is in my view certain to be selected, for the following reasons:

President Biden remains President, he continues to have the good will of the delegates who were elected to vote for him – in fact his decision to not run will generate additional positive sentiment toward him within the Democratic Party – and he has formally endorsed Kamala Harris to head the Democratic ticket.

There just isn’t time enough for another candidate to mobilise enough delegates to pose a serious threat to her, and the political risk for any potential candidate to publicly seek to compete against the Vice-President is simply too great.

As Vice-President, she is the logical successor; this election will in part be a referendum on the record of the Biden-Harris Administration, she is the best person to defend that record.

She has greater exposure to the American electorate than any other potential Democratic candidate
Harris is also the best person to mobilise the African-American community, the largest single and most faithful block of Democratic voters.

The Democratic Party has already shown major disunity during the last weeks; by picking Kamala Harris, they avoid the potential chaos of a contested Convention.

She is ideally placed to forcefully defend the Democratic Party position on abortion, the issue that has proven a winning argument in the midterm election.

Harris can have immediate likely control over the large campaign funds that have been raised by the Biden-Harris team.

Of course, Kamala Harris has significant weaknesses, she has not been viewed by Americans as a successful Vice-President, she is as unpopular as Biden, and there is the basic question of whether America is ready to elect a black and Asian American woman as President.

She is not particularly effective in mobilising crowds with inspiring speeches, and in recent polls she has trailed Trump, although by a smaller margin that Biden. And American history suggests that last-minute changes in the choice of a Presidential candidate almost always favours the opposing Party. The path to success for the Democratic Party and their new candidate Kamala Harris, and for the Vice-President she will choose, is uphill.

But this election is special: Kamala Harris will be running against Donald Trump, who although he has totally consolidated his control over the Republican Party, is still viewed unfavourably by 54% of Americans.

The election between Trump and Biden was between two very well-known, weak candidates, neither liked by a majority of Americans. Now it is a totally different game, between one still weak candidate, Trump, and a new candidate, that is not as well-known and has never before been put in the situation of inheriting the leadership of one of the two Parties that control American politics. How she handles this new responsibility in the coming weeks will be critical for the outcome of the race.

This Presidential election has already given us far more surprises than we could have anticipated, and we still have 15 weeks before the election, plenty of time for other surprises. It is impossible to predict with confidence what will happen during these next three and a half months, but I will nevertheless hazard the following predictions:

That the Democratic Party will immediately and strongly unify behind the candidacy of Kamala Harris
That Kamala Harris will turn out to be a much better Presidential Candidate than Vice-President, the skills required are very different.

This will be a gruelling, dirty fight, but Kamala Harris will hold her own against Donald Trump. As an ex-Attorney General of California, she has the background and abilities to be very good at attacking Trump and defending the record and the program of the Democratic Party in such a street fight.

It will be a very close election, much closer than current polls which indicate a relatively clear Trump victory. This election, just like the last two Presidential elections, will be decided by a tiny number of currently undecided voters in a few swing states, who will have the power to choose the next US President, by selecting which of the two candidates is the less unattractive.

Patrick Siegler-Lathrop is a American/French investment banker, entrepreneur, consultant, advisor, professor, and author living in Portugal, with experience in finance, entrepreneurship, corporate strategy, NGOs and teaching. After a 15-year career in international investment banking, he owned and ran an industrial company for 15 years, launched a number of businesses, then served as a consultant and senior advisor to companies, both start-ups and mature companies. He has also taught entrepreneurship at INSEAD and Paris Dauphine University and has been involved throughout his career in NGOs. He is currently the President of the American Club of Lisbon and an advisor to the board at Starweaver.